Africa has increasingly become a central aspect of Russia’s worldwide aspirations in recent years. Previously a secondary area in Moscow’s strategic sphere, the continent is now a platform where President Vladimir Putin is adjusting influence, economics, and military strength. At the core of this change is the contentious substitution of the Wagner Group—a brutal paramilitary organization infamous for its clandestine activities—with a more strictly regulated successor. Analysts indicate that this move demonstrates Putin’s intention to sustain and potentially grow Russia’s presence in Africa while reducing the dangers associated with unregulated mercenary activities.
Wagner’s Ascendancy and Its Complexities
- For a significant portion of the last ten years, Wagner acted as the Kremlin’s unofficial presence in Africa, functioning in nations such as the Central African Republic, Mali, Sudan, and Libya. Its agents protected presidents, trained indigenous forces, battled insurgents, and ensured access to valuable resources like gold and diamonds. In exchange, Russia gained monetary benefits and political influence, frequently to the detriment of Western countries that faced challenges in sustaining their power.
- However, Wagner’s supremacy had a cost. The techniques it employed—characterized by accounts of atrocities, corruption, and exploitation—eroded Moscow’s reputation and created instability that occasionally exceeded Kremlin oversight. Following the demise of Wagner’s chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, in 2023, Moscow faced a dual challenge: how to maintain Wagner’s achievements while not allowing its autonomy
A Duplicate Under Kremlin Oversight
- Enter what is often referred to as Wagner’s “replica”—a revamped network of contractors managed more closely by the Russian Defense Ministry and intelligence agencies. In contrast to Prigozhin’s semi-independent empire, the revised model highlights centralization. Personnel are being incorporated into units that Moscow can oversee, while business agreements, especially in mining and infrastructure, are now routed through state-associated companies instead of Wagner’s private channels.
This reorganization enables Putin to keep the benefits of mercenary activities—plausible deniability, adaptability, and access to resources—while avoiding the unpredictability of a strong warlord acting on their own. It also provides Moscow greater influence over local administrations, guaranteeing that allegiance is directed not to Wagner but to the Russian state itself.
The Importance of Africa to Putin
The significance of Africa to Moscow cannot be underestimated. Due to the increasing Western sanctions related to the Ukraine conflict, Russia is seeking economic assistance and diplomatic backing from Africa. African countries possess considerable voting influence within the United Nations, and their natural resources—oil, gold, uranium, and rare earth minerals—are vital for maintaining Russia’s economy.
Additionally, by establishing itself as a security ally, Russia takes advantage of Africa’s increasing dissatisfaction with Western involvement.Countries like Mali and Burkina Faso, disappointed with France and various Western groups, have sought Russian support as an alternative
This presents Putin with chances not only to exert influence but also to challenge NATO's worldwide presenceThe Recent Approach in Action
- Indicators of the Kremlin’s new approach are already apparent. In the Central African Republic, forces connected to Wagner have been integrated into units renamed as “instructors” by Russia’s defense ministry. In Mali, Russia’s involvement has evolved into more official agreements, with Russian contractors working under contracts linked directly to state entities.
- This change might lessen the erratic violence Wagner was known for, yet it also reinforces Moscow’s enduring status. By integrating itself into formal frameworks, Russia secures legitimacy and endurance—complicating efforts by Western governments to remove its influence through sanctions or diplomatic means.
Dangers and Difficulties
Moreover, Russia encounters rivalry.China continues to be Africa's biggest trading partner, whereas the U.S.However, this approach comes with certain risks. Wagner’s harshness, while contentious, was also successful in creating fear and securing obedience. A more centralized and bureaucratic approach might diminish some of that deterrent effect. Local insurgent factions might challenge Russia’s determination, and unstable governments could feel discontent if Moscow fails to provide the same degree of ruthless effectiveness.
- and Europe continue to provide support and funding
- Moscow’s power frequently depends more on military strength than economic influence, which may restrict its capability to maintain lasting goodwill.
- There is also the chance of a negative response. Civil society organizations, human rights defenders, and certain African leaders are cautious about Russia’s expanding presence, especially as reports of misconduct associated with Wagner keep emerging. Should Moscow’s “replica” not set itself apart from its forerunner, discontent might diminish its power
What is Putin’s strategy?
- Putin’s strategy seems to rely on three foundations: consolidation, projection, and endurance.
- Consolidation: By breaking down Wagner’s autonomy and substituting it with a Kremlin-managed organization, Putin guarantees allegiance and optimizes earnings. This lowers the likelihood of another rebellious mercenary leader contesting state control.
- Projection: Russia extends its influence in areas where Western countries are withdrawing through military contractors and arms transactions. By occupying this void, Moscow presents itself as a reliable partner ready to assist African governments without the political stipulations typically tied to Western assistance.
- Endurance: As domestic sanctions take effect, Africa offers Russia both materials and political support. Establishing a lasting presence guarantees that Moscow possesses alternatives and leverage in its wider conflict with the West.
Conclusion
- The replacement of Wagner with a Kremlin-controlled replica is not merely a tactical change; it indicates a strategic reevaluation of Russia’s approach in Africa.
- . For Putin, the continent serves as both a source of opportunities and a release mechanism against Western seclusion. By strengthening his control over paramilitary activities, he aims to guarantee that Russia’s African initiatives benefit the state’s objectives instead of those of independent power players.
- The success of this strategy hinges on Russia’s capacity to maintain control while being effective, as well as on how African countries react to the next phase of Moscow’s engagement. What is evident, though, is that Africa is now solidly integrated into Putin’s worldwide strategy—a strategy where mercenaries are not merely fortune-seekers but instruments of diplomacy
What we know about the Africa Corps
- Wagner’s successor is not self-run. Unlike the mercenary group, the paramilitary Africa Corps is placed under the umbrella of the Russian defense ministry, according to the group’s official Telegram channel.
- The corps consists of elite combat commanders from Russia’s army. “Priority” recruitment was also given to current and former Wagner fighters, a post on the Africa Corps’ Telegram channel revealed in January 2024.
- Operatives of the Africa Corps have since joined the battlefield, conducting joint operations with Mali’s military against militia groups.
Dozens of Russian mercenaries killed in rebel ambush in Mali, in their worst known loss in Africa- Wagner announced in June that it was leaving Mali, one of the troubled nations in the Sahel, saying it had completed a three-and-a-half-year mission fighting insurgents in the junta-led West African country.
- A similar exit by Wagner has been mooted in the Central African Republic (CAR), the nerve center of the group in Africa.
- Wagner has operated in CAR since 2018 and has become the dominant force in the Central African nation following the final exit of French troops in 2022. It is widely credited in CAR with helping the nation stave off collapse.
- Earlier this month, however, military officials in CAR told The Associated Press that Russia’s defense ministry had asked authorities in the nation to substitute in the Africa Corps for Wagner and to pay for its services in cash.
- Remuneration of Wagner for providing military services to CAR, which include protecting its president, reclaiming territory seized by rebels and keeping armed groups at bay, “is done in an extremely hidden and discreet manner” by CAR’s government, Martin Ziguélé, an opposition lawmaker who served as prime minister from 2001 to 2003, told xenixnews in January.
- As a result, it is not clear how Wagner’s services are paid for. Still, previous xenixnews investigations found that companies linked to ex-Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin had won concessions to mine gold and diamonds in CAR, where nearly 70% of the population lives in extreme poverty – the fifth highest poverty rate in the world, according to a World Bank assessment in 2023.
- Prigozhin was killed in a plane crash northwest of Moscow in August 2023, two months after he launched a failed rebellion against Russia’s military leadership.
- A photograph from 2024 shows a bronze statue depicting Wagner group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin (L) and commander Dmitry Utkin in front of the “Maison Russe” (Russian House) in Bangui, CAR. Annela Niamolo/AFP/Getty Images
- Neither a government spokesperson nor CAR’s defense or communication ministers responded to xenixnews request for comment on the alleged planned pivot to the Africa Corps. xenixnews has also not heard back from Russian authorities.
- The communications minister, Maxime Balalou, told xenixnews in January that a bilateral defense agreement “allowed Russia to provide us with weapons,” as well as “handling and training for our defense and security forces, (and) assisting our armed forces on the ground.”
The Africa Corps has already arrived in other parts of Africa, according to the Africa Corps’ Telegram channel, operating in West African nations Niger and Burkina Faso, both governed by juntas.
Supporters of junta leader Capt. Ibrahim Traore wave a Russian flag in the streets of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, on Oct. 2, 2022. Sophie Garcia/AP
- It is not known whether the corps functions in Central Africa’s Equatorial Guinea, which hosts an estimated 200 Russian military instructors, according to a Reuters report late last year. Equatorial Guinea has had the same ruler for 46 years.
What does Putin want to do differently?
- Russia’s move to replace Wagner in Africa could be a “strategic rebranding by Moscow,” according to Héni Nsaibia, a senior analyst at the crisis-monitoring group, the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED).
- “With the Wagner name severely tarnished after the mutiny and Prigozhin’s death, Russia is likely consolidating its foreign military ventures under formal state control by erasing the ‘Wagner’ brand while retaining its core functions under a new name like the Africa Corps,” Nsaibia said in written responses to xenixnews
- “In this way,” he added, “Moscow can distance itself from the mercenary narrative while maintaining a strong presence in the region.”
Opinion: What happens to Wagner forces in Africa now?
Institutionalizing its military engagement in Africa could benefit the Kremlin in other ways, Nsaibia said.
- “The Africa Corps is intended to give Moscow greater control over operations, and potentially more international legitimacy, and fewer legal and reputational risks,” Nsaibia explained.
Wagner has faced lawsuits from human rights groups over accusations of human rights abuses.
The European Union sanctioned the Wagner Group and individuals and entities connected to it in 2021 and 2023. Among those sanctioned in 2023 were “the head of the Wagner Group in Mali, where Wagner mercenaries have been involved in acts of violence and multiple human rights abuses, including extrajudicial killings, as well as various high-profile members of the group in the CAR,” the Council of the EU said.
- United Nations experts also called in 2023 for an independent investigation into alleged crimes committed by the Wagner Group and the Malian military.
- Their statement said, “the lack of transparency and ambiguity over the legal status of the Wagner Group… create an overall climate of terror and complete impunity for victims of the Wagner Group’s abuses.”
- Malian authorities pushed back against the allegations, saying that the country “was unwavering in prosecuting and punishing proven perpetrators of human rights violations.”
While many questions remain about Wagner’s operations in Africa, there are mixed views about the impact its counterterrorism operations with local armies have had on the continent.
- “I don’t see what Wagner has brought to the battle (against terrorists),” said security consultant Mamadou Adje.
- “Since they (Wagner forces) joined the fight, jihadists have spread across Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger with lots of civilian casualties,” Adje, a retired Senegalese colonel who previously served in Mali and Burkina Faso under West African regional bloc ECOWAS, told xenixnews.
As for Wagner’s replacement with the Africa Corps in certain countries, “I don’t see much changing on the battlefield,” Adje said.
- In Nsaibia’s view, Wagner helped Mali’s military “achieve some tactical and strategic victories, notably the recapture of rebel strongholds.”
Nonetheless, he said, the group leaves behind “a state on the brink of collapse.”
- People walk through the weekly market in M’Berra camp in Bassikounou on June 7, 2022. The camp, in Mauritania, is one of the largest in West Africa, hosting refugees fleeing violence in Mali. Guy Peterson/AFP/Getty Images
- Earlier this month, UN delegates told the Security Council that security across the Sahel “is deteriorating rapidly,” and that terrorist activity in parts of the region has intensified “in scale, complexity and sophistication, including through the use of drones, alternative internet communication, and increasing collusion with transnational organized crime.”
- Ahunna Eziakonwa, a UN Assistant Secretary-General and Africa Director for the UN’s development program (UNDP), warns that the security problems in the Sahel “are beyond the capacity of the national governments,” and so global support is needed.
- What matters, though, is that any help from external actors is “well-meaning,” she told xenixnews, adding: “We’re not promoting any kind of support in the military side or security side that undermines human rights, irrespective of where it comes from.”
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