March 1, 2026
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6 min read

By Hazel Oliva

“Conclave” the movie provides a gripping, if fictional, behind-the-scenes look inside the secretive election of a new pope. But last year’s real-life conclave was just as dramatic, with plenty of plot twists, political battles among cardinals and a surprise outcome.

A new book lifts a lid on how, in May 2025, Pope Leo XIV was elected as the first US-born pope in the Catholic Church’s 2,000-year history. Its authors tell in previously unheard detail how Cardinal Robert Prevost, a low-key Augustinian friar from Chicago, had quietly garnered support from fellow cardinals as the conclave got underway but remained under the radar of wider attention as a serious candidate.

Gerard O’Connell, the Vatican correspondent for “America,” a Catholic magazine based in New York, and Elisabetta Piqué, a correspondent for Argentina’s “La Nacion” newspaper and a CNN contributor at the 2025 conclave, describe how an Italian frontrunner faded from contention while providing a breakdown of the voting inside the Sistine Chapel. They also report how the election of Prevost caught many by surprise, including senior figures in the Vatican. For years, the prospect of an American pope had seemed impossible because of the “military, economic and cultural power” of the US, one cardinal told them.

Pope Leo XIV arrives in the Popemobile ahead of his inauguration Mass in St. Peter's Square on May 18.

O’Connell and Piqué, a husband-and-wife reporting team, were longtime friends of Pope Francis, who had baptized their two children in Argentina while still a cardinal there and later also married the couple.

The book, “The Election of Pope Leo XIV: The Last Surprise of Pope Francis,” draws on interviews with numerous cardinals.

Using those sources, the authors describe how in the tense days leading up to the conclave,  inside the College of Cardinals: Should they vote for a pope to continue the legacy and reforms of Francis, or make a course correction? As O’Connell and Piqué set out, with each contributing their own diary-style entries to the book, efforts to elect a pope who would go in a different direction to Francis were thwarted. Leo, while distinct in style from his predecessor and still somewhat inscrutable, could broadly be described as Francis’ choice.

Here are some of the takeaways from the new book.

A conservative won round one but then Leo emerged

The first ballot, O’Connell reports, saw Cardinal Péter Erdö, a Hungarian, gain the greatest number of votes. Erdö is a distinguished church lawyer and was the conservatives’ choice. While support for him was well-organized, it wasn’t necessarily widespread, O’Connell says. In that opening round, “more than 30 candidates got votes but only three received between 20 and 30,” he writes, with the other two contenders being Cardinals Robert Prevost and Pietro Parolin, the Holy See Secretary of State and leading Italian candidate. The next two ballots, however, saw support move swiftly to Prevost while Erdö’s dropped away. The first American pope was elected on the fourth ballot with 108 votes, with Parolin as runner-up, O’Connell says. The book also reveals the fourth ballot had to be repeated as one cardinal accidentally stuck two ballot papers together. (The same thing happened in the 2013 conclave).

Solemn, secret… but also human

The conclave is a serious, spiritual process in which the cardinals are cut off from the world – surrendering all electronic devices – before they cast their vote in front of the awesome fresco of Michelangelo’s “The Last Judgment.” But the book suggests not everything always went to plan. Voting on the first day was delayed when security officials picked up a cell phone signal inside the Sistine Chapel, O’Connell writes. One of the “older cardinals” realized he had a cell phone in his pocket which he then handed over, a reported scene O’Connell describes as “unimaginable, even for a film.” Then another problem emerged, the book says. With no phones to use as alarms, some cardinals almost overslept in their rooms in the Casa Santa Marta, the guesthouse where they stay for the duration of conclave. The Vatican handed complimentary alarm clocks to each one to make sure they would wake up and get to the Sistine Chapel on time. Some cardinals also complained about the lack of bathroom in the chapel which meant they had to be escorted to an external restroom by a junior cardinal deacon. “It’s like going back to kindergarten,” one told the authors.

An image of the late Pope Francis and Pope Leo XIV at the bishop's palace in Chiclayo, northern Peru.

As the election drew closer, the frontrunners fell away

In the run-up to the conclave, following Francis’ death, two cardinals were talked of as frontrunners: Parolin, the Vatican’s chief diplomat, and Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, leader of the Vatican’s evangelization office. Parolin was being pushed as a moderate, diplomatic figure who would restore “order” after the turbulent years of Francis, Piqué and O’Connell report. But he lacked grassroots experience in Catholic communities. While Parolin worked closely with Francis, one of his supporters, Cardinal Beniamino Stella, stunned fellow cardinals with a speech at a meeting where he attacked a major Francis reform. The authors reported on the speech in the run-up to the conclave and this, they say, had a negative effect on Parolin’s candidacy. This was compounded by a poor performance at a Mass with large numbers of young people, where Parolin was described as lacking “charisma” and as having “no connection” with the youthful congregation. Tagle, while charismatic and from the Philippines, with one of the largest Catholic populations in the world, was considered not to be a strong enough administrator, the book says. He also suffered harsh social media attacks which damaged his candidacy.

Leo, the dark horse who defied the assumption “no American pope”

The authors claim that “more than twenty” cardinals had quietly identified Cardinal Prevost as the most qualified candidate to be pope. They were impressed by his humble, low-profile style and felt he would be the one best placed to continue Francis’ legacy, they write. His missionary experience in Peru, and international experience more broadly, was crucial.

A Polish woman, center, who lives in the United States celebrates with her friends after the newly elected Pope Leo XIV spoke for the first time from the Vatican balcony on May 8, 2025.

Previously, because of the US’ global political and economic power, it was widely accepted the cardinals would not choose an American pope. But Prevost was seen as “the least American of the Americans” and the cardinals from Latin America, Piqué reports, felt that “although a ‘gringo,’ (he) is one of us.”

Pope Francis ensured Leo was a candidate

Francis quietly promoted the man who would become his successor and ensured he was a contender. “Clearly Pope Francis had his sights set on him,” Piqué writes. It was the late pope – the first from Latin America – who laid the ground for Prevost to become a candidate by first appointing him a bishop in Chiclayo, Peru, and then bringing him to Rome to run one of the most important Vatican departments, responsible for appointing bishops. In this high-ranking role, Leo worked closely with cardinals from across the world and it was a sign of the trust Francis had placed in him. The pair had regular one-to-one meetings during which, Piqué says, “surely the two men discussed Church leadership issues beyond the immediate topic at hand (upcoming bishop appointments),” while keen-eyed observers noted that Prevost accompanied Francis on his last two trips abroad.

Pope Leo XIV stands in the Sistine Chapel among cardinals after being elected.

Despite being an ancient election process steeped in ritual and tradition, and still communicating its results through smoke signals, the conclave was able decisively and swiftly to produce a result. As O’Connell and Piqué show, it also retains the ability to surprise.

“The Election of Pope Leo XIV: The Last Surprise of Pope Francis,” will be published in English by Orbis Books on March 25, 2026.

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3 min read

Tehran launches fresh retaliatory attacks as it confirms death of decades-long leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in US-Israeli strikes

Smoke rises following an explosion, after Israel and the U.S. launched strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, February 28, 2026.

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Where things stand

• Supreme leader killed: Iran says it views revenge for Saturday’s US-Israeli attacks as its “legitimate right and duty” after the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. US President Donald Trump indicated the strikes would continue through the week. Iran says one attack killed over 100 girls at an elementary school near a military base.
 Retaliatory strikes: Israel says it has carried out a new wave of strikes “in the heart of Tehran,” as Iran unleashes fresh attacks after Khamenei’s killing. Iran has already attacked US military bases, Israel and targets across the region. The conflict has damaged air hubs, rocked densely populated areas and disrupted oil shipments.
• Celebration and condemnation: The contrast of celebrations and mourning highlights deep divides in Iran. Across the US, people took to the streets, with some celebrating and others protesting the strikes on Iran.AllCatch UpAnalysis

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Putin calls Khamenei’s killing a “cynical murder” that violates international law

By Hazel Oliva

In his first official comments since US-Israeli strikes on Iran and ensuing retaliatory strikes, Russian President Vladimir Putin has called the targeted killing of Iran’s supreme leader a “cynical murder,” Russian state media agency TASS reported.

The Russian leader described Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death as a murder that violated “all norms of human morality and international law,” according to TASS.

Putin said Khamenei would be remembered in Russia as an “outstanding statesman.”

Moscow and Tehran have long been key allies, with Iran providing Russia with military support including drones and ballistic missiles, and helping Moscow build a drone-manufacturing facility, amid its war on Ukraine.

It comes after Russia’s foreign ministery yesterday condemned the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, calling them a “reckless step” and an “unprovoked act of armed aggression.”

British defense secretary says Iran lashing out “indiscriminately” across Middle East

By Hazel Oliva

Defence Secretary John Healey speaks to the media outside BBC Broadcasting House in London on Sunday.

Britain’s defense secretary said the Iranian regime is responding to the US-Israeli strikes with “indiscriminate” attacks across the Middle East, including by targeting British military assets in the region.

The concern now is that this regime is lashing out, it’s lashing out in an increasingly indiscriminate and widespread way,” John Healey told Sky News on Sunday.

Healey said there were 300 personnel at Britain’s base in Bahrain, which was targeted Saturday by Iranian missiles and drones. Some of the personnel were “within a few hundred yards” of where the missiles and drones landed, he said.

Also on Saturday, two missiles were “fired in the direction of Cyprus,” he said.

“We don’t think they were targeted at Cyprus,” he clarified. “But nevertheless it’s an example of how there is a very real and rising threat from a regime that is lashing out widely across the region, and that requires us to act … defensively.”

The defense secretary also said the Iranian regime was a “source of evil” in the region, listing a string of ways in which it has “menaced” countries abroad and cracked down on its citizens at home.

“Twenty terror plots directed at Britain, sponsored by Iran; tens of thousands of young people, protesters, murdered on the streets in the last few months in Iran; 57,000 Iranian drones fired by Russia into Ukraine; proxy groups that destabilize countries right across the region,” Healey said.

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6 min read

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What we’re covering

• Epstein files: Ghislaine Maxwell, jailed for 20 years for conspiring with Jeffrey Epstein to abuse minors, sent a clear message to Donald Trump today that if the president were to grant her clemency, she would clear his name of any wrongdoing as it pertains to Epstein. Separately, members of Congress can review unredacted versions of the Epstein files at the Department of Justice today.

• DHS funding: Lawmakers are returning to Washington with just days to find a funding solution on the Department of Homeland Security or see an agency shutdown. Democrats are demanding reforms to federal immigration enforcement.

• Super Bowl reaction: Trump — who skipped the Super Bowl and attended a watch party in Florida — called last night’s Bad Bunny’s halftime performance “a slap in the face” and claimed “nobody understands a word” said by the Puerto Rican music star.AllCatch upEpstein files

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DHS negotiations remain stuck on Capitol Hill

The deadline for funding the Department of Homeland Security is Friday at midnight, but Republican and Democratic negotiators have yet to make significant progress, sources tell Xenix News

The lack of serious progress over the weekend raises the stakes that funding for the department could lapse in just a matter of days as Democrats have sought to make major reforms to US Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection practices as part of these talks.

Democrats sent some legislative text to Republicans over the weekend that crystalized their list of demands, a source briefed on the matter told Xenix News. Yet, there hasn’t been a sustained back-and-forth. One source characterized it as a car stuck in neutral but sort of rolling down a hill – so not totally stalled out.

Last week, Democrats and Republicans were engaged in a public fight over who was stalling the talks, a sign that the negotiations aren’t yet at a serious point.

It’s possible that Senate Majority Leader John Thune may need to begin the process of filing cloture on another short-term funding stopgap, known as a continuing resolution, but again, it’s not clear that Democrats would back that plan barring significant progress on Republicans meeting their demands on ICE reforms.Read more

Catch up on the latest on the Epstein files, including Ghislaine Maxwell’s reaction to House deposition

This photo provided by the New York State Sex Offender Registry shows Jeffrey Epstein on March 28, 2017.

The fallout from the release by the Department of Justice of millions of files related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein continued unabated today, here and abroad.

His jailed associate Ghislaine Maxwell invoked the Fifth Amendment during a virtual deposition as her attorney made an extraordinary overture. She is currently serving time at a minimum security prison in Bryan, Texas.

If you’re just joining us, here’s the latest:

Maxwell deposition:

  • House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer called the Maxwell’s decision to invoke the Fifth “very disappointing” and said lawmakers “had many questions to ask about the crime she and Epstein committed, as well as questions about potential co-conspiracy.”
  • Maxwell sent a clear message to Donald Trump: If the president were to grant her clemency, she would clear his name of any wrongdoing as it pertains to Epstein. The extraordinary overture came via a statement from Maxwell’s lawyer.
  • Epstein survivors urged members of the House Oversight Committee to treat Maxwell “with the utmost skepticism, to rigorously scrutinize any claims she makes,” according to a letter entered into evidence during the deposition.

International fallout:

  • British police are assessing a report that Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor allegedly shared confidential reports with Epstein during the former prince’s role as UK trade envoy. Mountbatten-Windsor has previously repeatedly denied any wrongdoing over his ties to Epstein. He has not publicly responded to the latest allegations.
  • Separately, the Prince and Princess of Wales said they were “deeply concerned” by revelations from the Epstein files, a spokesperson told journalists in Riyadh ahead of Prince William’s visit to Saudi Arabia.
  • In Norway, former ambassador Mona Juul has been charged with “gross corruption” due to her relationship Epstein, Norway’s crime agency Økokrim said. Her husband, Terje Rød-Larsen, was also charged with complicity in gross corruption.

Prince and Princess of Wales “concerned” over Epstein revelations

Vance hails US-Armenia partnership in first ever vice presidential visit

Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan welcomes US Vice President JD Vance at the President's Residence, in Yerevan, on Monday.

Vice President JD Vance on Monday became the first sitting US vice president (or president) to visit Armenia, where he touted partnerships between the two nations — including US drone technology sales and a civil nuclear cooperation agreement.

“Tonight marks a new beginning for Armenia and the United States and the partnership that our country can have together,” Vance said, standing beside Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, whom he endorsed ahead of upcoming elections.

Vance credited President Donald Trump and Pashinyan for advancing a forward-looking vision for peace in the region. Trump hosted the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan at the White House in August, where they finalized a peace agreement that would grant the US exclusive development access to a critical transit corridor in the South Caucasus.

Vance praised that Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, saying it’ll ensure “private capital is going to flow into building railroads, into building pipelines, again, to building the interconnectedness that would create real prosperity for the region, but also allow the peace agreement to stick.”

Pashinyan, for his part, said he hopes Trump will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 and discussed his role on the Board of Peace, confirming he plans to attend an upcoming meeting.Read more

Maxwell can clear Trump’s name in Epstein probe in exchange for clemency, attorney says

House Oversight Chairman James Comer arrives to speak to reporters after Ghislaine Maxwell's deposition on Capitol Hill Monday.

Ghislaine Maxwell, who was sentenced to prison for 20 years for conspiring with Jeffrey Epstein to abuse minors, sent a clear message to Donald Trump on Monday that if the president were to grant her clemency, she would clear his name of any wrongdoing as it pertains to Epstein.

The extraordinary overture, stated by Maxwell’s lawyer Monday morning during her virtual deposition before the House Oversight Committee, ensures the Epstein saga will continue to remain a political hotspot.

“Ms. Maxwell is prepared to speak fully and honestly if granted clemency by President Trump,” attorney David Oscar Markus said in a statement during the deposition, which he later posted on X. “Only she can provide the complete account. Some may not like what they hear, but the truth matters. For example, both President Trump and President Clinton are innocent of any wrongdoing.”

Markus also said that: “Ms. Maxwell alone can explain why, and the public is entitled to that explanation.”

Trump has not ruled out the possibility of offering Maxwell a pardon or commutation.

Trump and Clinton, who appear throughout the files released by DOJ, have denied any wrongdoing related to Epstein.

House Oversight Chair James Comer called Maxwell’s decision to plead the Fifth “very disappointing” and said lawmakers “had many questions to ask about the crime she and Epstein committed, as well as questions about potential co-conspiracy.”

Democrats on the committee accused Maxwell of trying to buy her clemency by refusing to testify. “We will not allow this silence to stand,” Democratic Rep. Melanie Stansbury said.

When asked if he would subpoena Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick as part of the probe, Comer said he was going to focus on five depositions he has coming up.

The Clintons are expected to appear behind closed doors later this month for depositions.

5 min read

It’s not often that Europe speaks with one voice – or responds with such urgency.

But US President Donald Trump’s announcement Saturday of sanctions against several European countries that reject any US claim to Greenland, a Danish territory, was one of those moments.

An emergency meeting of EU ambassadors will take place in Brussels on Sunday in response to Trump’s threat, which he made after an estimate quarter of the population of Greenland’s capital Nuuk joined protests against any potential annexation.

Across the continent, among allies that usually tread carefully in responding to utterances from the White House, the response was immediate and emphatic, and recognized an existential threat to the transatlantic alliance.

French President Emmanuel Macron, who has tried to cultivate a good personal relationship with Trump, led the charge – describing the threat of tariffs as “unacceptable.”

“No intimidation or threat will influence us – neither in Ukraine, nor in Greenland, nor anywhere else in the world when we are confronted with such situations,” he said on X.

“Europeans will respond in a united and coordinated manner should they be confirmed. We will ensure that European sovereignty is upheld.”

French President Emmanuel Macron, who has tried to cultivate a good personal relationship with Trump, described the threat of tariffs as “unacceptable.”

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer chimed in, saying in a statement that “applying tariffs on allies for pursuing the collective security of NATO allies is completely wrong.”

Even Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who has typically had positive relations with the US President, described the move as an “error” in a handout video from a state visit to South Korea.

Revealing she had already had a phone conversation with Trump, Meloni said she “doesn’t agree” with the idea of imposing tariffs against countries that contribute to Greenland’s security.

Eight European countries, including the United Kingdom, Germany and France, issued a joint statement Sunday saying that, “tariff threats undermine transatlantic relations and risk a dangerous downward spiral. We will continue to stand united and coordinated in our response.”

Trump, in a lengthy social media post Saturday, said the United States needed possession of Greenland to counter Chinese and Russian threats in the Arctic and develop what he has called the Golden Dome to protect North America from ballistic missiles.

Experts say that the US does not need to own Greenland for the Dome to be effective, thanks to a 1951 agreement that gives the US the right to build defense facilities on the island.

US Vice President JD Vance, and second lady Usha Vance stand with Col. Susan Meyers, commander of the US military's Pituffik Space Base, as they tour the base.

The Pituffik Space Base, which US Vice President JD Vance visited last March, is focused on missile warning, space surveillance, and satellite command and control missions.

European politicians said Trump’s unilateralism over Greenland, and his treatment of long-standing allies, was playing into Moscow and Beijing’s hands.

“China and Russia must be having a field day. They are the ones who benefit from divisions among allies,” said EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas.

Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez took a similar line. In an interview with Spanish newspaper La Vanguardia, he said any military action ‍by the U.S. against Denmark’s vast Arctic ‌island would damage NATO and delight Russian President Vladimir Putin.

It would make Putin “the happiest man in the world. Why? Because it would legitimize his attempted invasion of Ukraine,” he said.

“If the United States were to use force, it would be the death knell for NATO. Putin would be doubly happy,” Sanchez warned.

“The measures against NATO allies announced today will not help in ensuring security in the Arctic,” said the President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola on X. “They risk the opposite, emboldening our joint enemies and those who wish to destroy our common values and way of life.”

One casualty of the tariff threat may be the US-EU trade deal agreed last year, which the European Parliament was set to debate this week. The leader of the largest group in the assembly, Manfred Weber, said on X that “given Donald Trump’s threats regarding Greenland, approval is not possible at this stage.”

Pituffik Space Bas pictured in northern Greenland.

There have been plenty of occasions during both Trump administrations that European governments have reeled in shock at the rhetoric from the White House and then embarked on careful damage limitation.

But many Europeans recognize in the second Trump administration a far more strident tone, beginning when Vance excoriated Europe as woke, soft on immigration and anti-democratic in a speech at the Munich Security Conference last February.

Trump’s National Security Strategy in November doubled down on the scorn. “It is far from obvious whether certain European countries will have economies and militaries strong enough to remain reliable allies” two decades from now, it said.

The document sneered at what it called the “stark prospect of civilizational erasure” in Europe, claiming “censorship of free speech and suppression of political opposition, cratering birthrates, and loss of national identities and self-confidence.”

And earlier this month, Trump’s deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller told CNN’s Jake Tapper, “We live in a world, in the real world… that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power.”

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“For the United States to secure the Arctic region, to protect and defend NATO and NATO interests, obviously, Greenland should be part of the United States,” Miller added.

Essentially, in this White House, a strong transatlantic relationship is no longer thought critical to US national security or its dominance of the Western hemisphere.

But strong words from the capitals of Europe are just that: The challenge is to build greater self-reliance in defense and security, a process that takes decades rather than months.

In the meantime, some may recall then UK Prime Minister Winston Churchill’s exasperation over the planning for D-Day, the operation that would liberate Western Europe from Nazi Germany.

“There is only one thing worse than fighting with allies, and that is fighting without them,” Churchill said later.

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2 min read

Gaza’s only border crossing with Egypt reopened partially on Monday morning after Israel closed it nearly two years ago, according to an Israeli security official, allowing a small number of Palestinians to enter and leave the war-torn enclave.

The European Union is operating the Rafah crossing as the final step of the first phase of the US-brokered ceasefire agreement in Gaza that went into effect in mid-October.

The crucial crossing, which has been largely closed since Israel seized it in May 2024, underwent a series of preparations on Sunday from the European Union, Egypt and other parties that will be involved in running the border crossing.

During the first few days of operation, only 50 people per day will be allowed to cross both ways, Egypt’s state-affiliates AlQahera News reported on Monday, citing an unidentified source.

Xenix News previously reported that a total of 150 Palestinians would be allowed to leave Gaza through the crossing each day, but only 50 would be allowed to enter.

At Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Hospital in Gaza’s Deir al-Balah, Ibrahim Al-Batran packed his bag on Sunday when he heard the crossing would open. A kidney dialysis patient, he said the hospital can only provide minimal care.

“Many people have died while waiting for treatment, and I may die today, tomorrow or the day after tomorrow while I’m waiting for treatment,” he told CNN. “Until now, not a single patient has been allowed to leave.”

According to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, more than 20,000 patients in Gaza are awaiting permission to travel abroad for treatment, including at least 440 cases that are considered life-threatening. Nearly 1,300 people have died after being forced to wait to leave Gaza for treatment, the ministry said.

The steep price of passing through the crossing coupled with lengthy bureaucratic and security processes mean few Palestinians can realistically expect to leave. Before Israel shut the crossing, some Palestinians had reported paying thousands of dollars when it was open, which few can afford.

The full reopening of the Rafah crossing was part of the first phase of the US-brokered ceasefire agreement that went into effect in mid-October. But Israel refused to open the crossing until the return of all living and deceased hostages. The final deceased hostage, Ran Gvili, was returned to Israel last week.

Last week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the opening would be “limited” with no passage of humanitarian aid or commercial goods.

The return of Gvili and the reopening of Rafah brings to a conclusion the first phase of the 20-point ceasefire agreement. The US announced the start of the second phase of the agreement two weeks ago when President Donald Trump officially launched his Board of Peace in Davos.

During the event, Ali Shaath, who leads the Palestinian technocratic committee expected to run Gaza, said the crossing would reopen, calling it “a lifeline and symbol of opportunity.”

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4 min read

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What we’re covering here

• President Donald Trump said Friday he is nominating Kevin Warsh to be the next Federal Reserve chair. Warsh will take over from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whose term as chair ends in May. The role requires Senate confirmation.

• The announcement caps an extensive search that started in September and was spearheaded by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who whittled down a list of half a dozen candidates and presented four finalists to the president.

• Trump has castigated Powell for months, calling him a “numbskull,” a “moron” and a “jerk” for not lowering interest rates more quickly. His administration also launched a criminal investigation of Powell and the Fed earlier this month, which led Powell to issue an extraordinary rebuke of Trump’s efforts to politicize the independent central bank.

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It’s about to officially become Trump’s economy

President Donald Trump speaks to the media as he walks to Marine One prior to departure from the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, DC, on January 27.

Once President Donald Trump’s handpicked Federal Reserve chair takes up his position at the head of the US economy, the president will have run out of excuses: This will officially become the Trump economy, for better or worse.

Throughout the first year of his second term, Trump has mostly blamed America’s affordability problems on two men: Former President Joe Biden and Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whom he accuses of mismanaging the economy and allowing prices to rise out of control.

But those excuses have fallen flat, with poll after poll showing that voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy.

Once the Fed chair nominee is Senate confirmed, Trump will have claimed the economy for himself. That could be a politically precarious proposition, since the president has almost certainly overpromised on what the new Fed chair will be able to accomplish.

Here’s why.

Trump wants lower mortgage rates. A new Fed chair may not help with that

From Xenix News

President Donald Trump has often said that he wants lower interest rates in order to improve home affordability.

However, the Federal Reserve doesn’t directly set mortgage rates. Those rates largely track the 10-year Treasury yield, which rises and falls for a host of economic reasons.

“The mortgage market is very complex,” said Charlie Dougherty, a senior economist at Wells Fargo. “Yes, the Fed plays a role, but the root cause of mortgage rates being elevated is about inflation, it’s about prospects for growth and fiscal pressures.”

Average mortgage rates have stayed stubbornly just above 6% for the last several months, even after the Fed cut interest rates three consecutive times at the end of 2025.

Trump’s nominee for Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, is known as a “hawk” who supported higher rates during his previous tenure at the Fed. However, even if Warsh cuts the Fed’s benchmark interest rate more than expected, mortgage rates may not move lower.

Wells Fargo expects the 10-year Treasury yield to fall early this year before climbing again in 2027 — a shift that could push mortgage rates higher down the road. Dougherty said Warsh’s nomination doesn’t change the bank’s outlook.Read more

Trump: “We talk about it” but I didn’t ask Warsh to cut rates

US President Donald Trump speaks before signing executive orders in the Oval Office in the White House on Friday.

President Donald Trump on Friday in the Oval Office denied that he directly asked his pick for Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, to cut interest rates.

“We talk about it, and I’ve been following him, and I don’t want to ask him that question. I think it’s inappropriate, probably,” Trump said. “Probably would be allowed, but I want to keep it nice and pure. But he certainly wants to cut rates. I’ve been watching him for a long time.”

Trump has been publicly shaming current Fed Chair Jerome Powell because the central bank hasn’t lowered rates as quickly or dramatically as the president would like. That’s why some economists have questioned Trump’s pick of Warsh, who has publicly agreed with the president in recent months but has a long record from his prior time at the Fed of pushing for higher interest rates.

Trump said he wasn’t concerned about Warsh’s reputation as an inflation hawk, acknowledging that there have been times when the Fed needed to raise rates.

“Yeah, I’ve had times when I think you’ve had to really have rate hikes too,” Trump said. “But he’s very smart, very good, strong, young – pretty young – and he’s gonna do a good (job).”

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4 min read

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What we’re covering here

• The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady Wednesday after its first policy meeting of 2026, as the labor market and inflation come into better balance.

• The central bank cut rates three times last year as it monitored the economic effects of President Donald Trump’s aggressive policies. Unemployment ticked up last year and inflation moved slightly lower.

• It’s also the first time we’ll hear from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell after his extraordinary rebuke of the Trump administration. He announced earlier this month that he is under federal investigation, saying the criminal probe is a “pretext” meant to intimidate the central bank into cutting rates to the president’s liking.

• Trump has said his pick for a new Fed chair to replace Powell, whose term ends in May, will slash rates. However, the chair is just one vote on a committee of 12 officials who make policy adjustments based on economic evidence, not political pressure.

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Fed holds interest rates steady as its independence comes under threat

From Xenix News

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell during a news conference on September 17, 2025 in Washington, DC.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept interest rates unchanged as the US central bank fights to maintain its ability to set interest rates without political interference.

Officials kept their benchmark lending rate at a range of 3.5-3.75%, following three consecutive rate cuts late last year. Several policymakers have said in recent public speeches they want to see the effects of those rate cuts before considering any further reductions, suggesting a pause could last for a few months.

The Fed’s latest rate decision comes at a pivotal moment in the central bank’s 112-year history, as the Supreme Court reviews a case with significant implications for the Fed’s independence. Chair Jerome Powell himself pushed back against the Trump administration’s threats against the Fed’s independence earlier this month in a stunning video.

Yes, the labor market has weakened. No, that doesn’t guarantee a rate cut

From Xenix News

A job seeker waits to talk to a recruiter at a job fair on August 28, 2025, in Sunrise, Florida.

Outside of recessions, last year was one of the weakest labor markets in decades. Additionally, the latest jobs report from December showed employers hired just 50,000 new workers — the most tepid job growth since December 2020, when employers laid off a net 183,000 workers.

On the surface, that, on top of other recent lackluster labor market data, would appear to make rate cuts a surefire thing for the Federal Reserve, given that it is tasked with setting rates at levels to promote maximum employment. (Generally speaking, lower rates can help boost the labor market by reducing employers’ borrowing costs, thereby freeing up funds to hire more workers.)

But the labor market is only half of the Fed’s responsibility; the other half is price stability (i.e. preventing higher inflation.) Cutting rates too quickly or by too much can help fuel higher inflation, especially at a time when higher tariffs and other factors are driving businesses to raise prices.

With both sides of the equation in mind, economists at Morgan Stanley anticipate the Fed will hold rates steady for longer than they previously forecast.

“Labor demand sill remains soft – with private payrolls rising by only 37k in December and 29k on a three-month moving average – but we think the Fed can live with slower employment growth so long as the unemployment rate is stable (or falling),” they said in a note earlier this month. Their expectation now is that the next rate cut will come in June.

Consumer confidence crisis?

From Xenix News

A customer shops in a supermarket in New York on January 22.

America’s economic mood deteriorated in January to its lowest level in more than a decade as consumers fretted about geopolitical tensions, affordability and President Donald Trump’s unrelenting trade war.

Americans haven’t been in this bad of a mood about the economy since 2014, according to the closely watched Consumer Confidence Index. This month, the index fell 9.7 points to its lowest reading in nearly 12 years.

Put another way: Even in the depths of the 2020 pandemic, consumers were more confident about the economy than they are now, according to the index, which is published by the nonprofit think tank The Conference Board.

To be sure, these sentiment surveys tend to tell us more about what Americans believe than about how they truly are. In recent years, especially, the gap between what consumers say they’re feeling and how they’re actually spending their money has been widening.

So this sour January mood might not translate into less spending. A separate survey from the University of Michigan that emphasizes folks’ views about their personal finances hit a five-month high in January.

That might be why Wall Street was so unbothered by the confidence reading Tuesday. US stocks hit record highs thanks to plenty of optimism about corporate earnings.

4 min read

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Where things stand

• Leader sidelined: Top Border Patrol official Gregory Bovino and some of his agents are expected to leave Minneapolis today, sources said, as President Donald Trump is sending border czar Tom Homan to manage the immigration crackdown in the state. Trump also met with Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem for nearly two hours last night, according to sources.

• President shifts tone: Trump said he had “great conversations” with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey yesterday, indicating that a compromise could be reached. Meanwhile, first lady Melania Trump called on Americans to “unify” in the wake of the shooting deaths of Alex Pretti and Renee Good and the subsequent protests.

• Judge’s order: Acting ICE Director Todd Lyons has been ordered to appear in federal court on Friday by a Minnesota judge to explain why he should not be held in contempt for violating an order in the case of a man challenging his detention.

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Trump says he does not believe Alex Pretti was an ‘assassin,’ contradicting top aide

From Xenix News

President Donald Trump said today that he does not believe Alex Pretti was acting as an “assassin” in Minneapolis, the most direct contradiction he’s made yet of how some members of his administration described Pretti in the immediate aftermath of his killing.

Speaking to reporters at the White House, Trump was asked about the “assassin” description, which was used on Saturday by deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller.

“No,” Trump said, “not as an — no.”

He turned back after a moment to offer an addendum to his answer.

“With that being said, you can’t have guns. You can’t walk in with guns. You just can’t. You can’t walk in with guns, you can’t do that. But it’s a very unfortunate incident,” he said.

After Pretti was shot to death on Saturday, Miller referred to him as “a would-be assassin” who “tried to murder federal agents,” a claim Vice President JD Vance reposted on social media.

At the White House on Monday, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt sought to put distance between those comments and Trump’s feelings. She said she hadn’t heard Trump “characterize Mr. Pretti in that way.”

Trump says he’s “going to be watching over” investigation into Pretti shooting

From Xenix News

President Donald Trump on Tuesday called for an “honorable and honest” investigation into the fatal shooting of Alex Pretti and said he’d be “watching over it.”

Asked Tuesday whether he believed Pretti’s death was justified, the president indicated that he would be involved with the investigation.

“Well you know, we’re doing a big investigation. I want to see the investigation. I’m going to be watching over it. I want a very honorable and honest investigation. I have to see it myself,” he told reporters while departing the White House for a trip to Iowa.

The president struck a more moderate tone than many of his top lieutenants, some of whom have cast Pretti as a “domestic terrorist.” There has been a shift in tone and strategy from the White House over the past day, with Trump announcing on Monday that he was sending border czar Tom Homan to Minneapolis to replace Border Patrol chief Greg Bovino on the ground.

Walz meets with White House border czar Tom Homan as two agree to “ongoing dialogue”

From Xenix News

White House Border Czar Tom Homan, left, and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.

White House Border Czar Tom Homan, left, and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. AP

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz’s office said he met with White House border czar Tom Homan today and the two “agreed on the need for an ongoing dialogue.”

The Democratic governor said he reiterated Minnesota’s priorities, including “impartial investigations into the Minneapolis shootings involving federal agents, a swift, significant reduction in the number of federal forces in Minnesota, and an end to the campaign of retribution against Minnesota.”

Walz and Homan “will continue working toward those goals, which the President also agreed to yesterday,” the governor’s office said.

The Minnesota Department of Public Safety will be the primary liaison with Homan in ensuring those goals are met, Walz’s office noted.

Some background: President Donald Trump and Walz spoke by phone yesterday in what they both described as a productive conversation. “It was a very good call, and we, actually, seemed to be on a similar wavelength,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, striking a notably conciliatory tone.

In a separate statement, Walz said Trump agreed to consider reducing the number of federal agents in Minnesota and pledged to talk to his Department of Homeland Security about ensuring that state officials can investigate Saturday’s fatal shooting of Alex Pretti.

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4 min read

US President Donald Trump has once again questioned whether NATO allies would “be there” if the United States “ever needed them,” baselessly claiming that the alliance’s troops “stayed a little back” from the frontlines in Afghanistan.

“I’ve always said, ‘Will they be there, if we ever needed them?’ And that’s really the ultimate test. And I’m not sure of that. I know that we would have been there, or we would be there, but will they be there?” Trump said Thursday in an interview with Fox News in Davos, Switzerland.

In the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the US became the first and so far only NATO member to invoke Article 5, which states that an attack against one member is an attack against all. For 20 years, NATO allies and other partner countries fought alongside US troops in Afghanistan – a sacrifice Trump has routinely downplayed.

“We’ve never needed them. We have never really asked anything of them. You know, they’ll say they sent some troops to Afghanistan, or this or that. And they did – they stayed a little back, a little off the front lines,” he said.

U.S. President Donald Trump attends a bilateral meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting on January 21, 2026 in Davos, Switzerland. The annual meeting of political and business leaders comes amid rising tensions between the United States and Europe over a range of issues, including Trump's vow to acquire Greenland, a semi-autonomous Danish territory.

President Trump says US has ‘never needed’ NATO and claims its troops avoided frontlines in Afghanistan

The president’s comments have rankled US allies in NATO, coming at the end of a week in which he has severely strained the alliance through his repeated threats to seize control of Greenland, an autonomous part of Denmark, another NATO member.

While in absolute terms the US lost by far the most troops of any NATO country in Afghanistan, some European countries – with much smaller populations than the US – lost almost as many troops in relative terms.

Around 3,500 allied troops died in the conflict, of which 2,456 were Americans and 457 were British. Denmark, with a population of around 5 million when the invasion began, lost more than 40 troops.

The force dispatched to the southern Helmand province – a Taliban stronghold and a center of opium production – initially comprised mostly British and Danish troops, before the US sent reinforcements in 2008. Britain and Denmark suffered most of their casualties in Helmand.

The coffins of two Danish soldiers killed in Helmand province were repatriated to a military airport in Jutland, Denmark, in October 2007.

Since the turn of the year, Trump has repeatedly questioned NATO’s willingness to support the US. “I DOUBT NATO WOULD BE THERE FOR US IF WE REALLY NEEDED THEM,” he blasted on Truth Social on January 7. “We will always be there for NATO, even if they won’t be there for us.”

Before Trump’s comments to Fox News, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte had pushed back at the president’s previous attempts to diminish the alliance’s willingness to support the US.

“There was one thing I heard you say yesterday and today – you were not absolutely sure that Europeans would come to the rescue of the US if you will be attacked,” Rutte said Wednesday in Davos, sitting next to Trump. “Let me tell you – they will. And they did in Afghanistan, as you know.”

“For every two Americans who paid the ultimate price, there was one soldier from another NATO country that did not come back to his family,” Rutte said. “This is important. It pains me if you think it is not.”

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte told Trump in Davos on Wednesday that allied troops had supported the US in Afghanistan.

British lawmakers across the political spectrum were also outraged by Trump’s comments.

“NATO’s Article 5 has only been triggered once. The UK and NATO allies answered the US call. And more than 450 British personnel lost their lives in Afghanistan,” said Defense Secretary John Healey. “Those British troops should be remembered for who they were: heroes who gave their lives in service of our nation.”

Emily Thornberry, chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee, said Trump’s comments were an “absolute insult,” while Kemi Badenoch, the leader of the opposition Conservative Party, called them “flat-out nonsense,” saying that the allies’ sacrifice “deserves respect not denigration.”

Other members of the Trump administration have also made light of the sacrifices made by NATO allies in Afghanistan. In June, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said his fellow US troops in Afghanistan would joke that the ISAF acronym on their shoulder patches – which stood for International Security Assistance Force – actually stood for “I Saw Americans Fighting.”

“What ultimately was a lot of flags … was not a lot of on the ground capability,” Hegseth said, disparaging the efforts of NATO allies.